As the 2024 NFL Draft class continues to evolve, it's time to take stock of which prospects are going to dominate the early-round conversation for the next four months.
AthleticTheir consensus Big Board aggregates the rankings of a wide range of draft experts to determine how top prospects are viewed relative to the rest of their class. In theory, by the time we reach draft weekend, these rankings should help us know how the picks could (or, at least, should) play out.
Let's see how things have changed since our December consensus panel…
2024 NFL Draft Consensus Board
| Id | pos | School | Past | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Marvin Harrison Jr |
WR |
1 |
0 |
|
|
2 |
Caleb Williams |
KP |
2 |
0 |
|
|
3 |
Drake Maye |
KP |
3 |
0 |
|
|
4 |
Joe Alt |
OT |
5 |
1 |
|
|
5 |
Bragg Bowers |
The |
4 |
-1 |
|
|
6 |
This is Fashanu |
OT |
6 |
0 |
|
|
7 |
Malik Nabars |
WR |
12 |
5 |
|
|
8 |
Rome Oduns |
WR |
13 |
5 |
|
|
9 |
Dallas Turner |
Edge |
7 |
-2 |
|
|
10 |
Jayden Daniels |
KP |
16 |
6 |
|
|
11 |
JC Latham |
OT |
10 |
-1 |
|
|
12 |
Layado Latu |
Edge |
9 |
-3 |
|
|
13 |
Jared verse |
Edge |
11 |
-2 |
|
|
14 |
Nate Wiggins |
CP |
19 |
5 |
|
|
15 |
Cooper Dejean |
CP |
22 |
7 |
|
|
16 |
George Newton |
TD |
14 |
-2 |
|
|
17 |
Amarius Mims |
OT |
21 |
4 |
|
|
18 |
Kool-Aid McKinstry |
CP |
8 |
-10 |
|
|
19 |
Derian Arnold |
CP |
31 |
12 |
|
|
20 |
laughter |
OT/G |
20 |
0 |
|
|
21 |
Keon Coleman |
WR |
18 |
-3 |
|
|
22 |
Brian Thomas Jr |
WR |
NR |
NR |
|
|
23 |
Bralan Trice |
Edge |
25 |
2 |
|
|
24 |
Michael Benix Jr |
KP |
27 |
3 |
|
|
25 |
Chop the Robinson |
Edge |
17 |
-8 |
|
|
26 |
Troy Fatanu |
OT/G |
43 |
17 |
|
|
27 |
Go Knicks |
KP |
28 |
1 |
|
|
28 |
Quinyon Mitchell |
CP |
48 |
20 |
|
|
29 |
Jordan Morgan |
OT |
50 |
21 |
|
|
30 |
Kamari Lassiter |
CP |
40 |
10 |
|
|
31 |
JJ McCarthy |
KP |
35 |
4 |
|
|
32 |
Adonai Mitchell |
WR |
38 |
6 |
|
|
33 |
Troy Franklin |
WR |
42 |
9 |
|
|
34 |
Kingsley Sumadia |
OT |
33 |
-1 |
|
|
35 |
Graham Barton |
OT/G |
36 |
1 |
|
|
36 |
Kamran Kinjans |
S |
30 |
-6 |
|
|
37 |
Tyler Guyton |
OT |
NR |
NR |
|
|
38 |
Byron Murphy II |
D.L |
NR |
NR |
|
|
39 |
Ennis Rockstraw Jr. |
CP |
NR |
NR |
|
|
40 |
Tyler Nubin |
S |
32 |
-8 |
|
|
41 |
Callen King |
CP |
29 |
-12 |
|
|
42 |
Chris Braswell |
Edge |
NR |
NR |
|
|
43 |
Lot McConkey |
WR |
NR |
NR |
|
|
44 |
Leonard Taylor III |
D.L |
46 |
2 |
|
|
45 |
D'Vondre sweats |
D.L |
NR |
NR |
|
|
46 |
Xavier Leggett |
WR |
44 |
-2 |
|
|
47 |
Jackson Powers-Johnson |
C |
NR |
NR |
|
|
48 |
Xavier Eligibility |
WR |
26 |
-22 |
|
|
49 |
Patrick Paul |
OT |
NR |
NR |
|
|
50 |
Chris Jenkins |
TD |
NR |
NR |
(Players shaded in red fell 10 points or more; players shaded in orange rose 10 points or more, or were not ranked in the previous consensus group.)
Some thoughts on the updated board:
1. Does the WR/TE run outperform the QB run?
With the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots currently in the top three, the Williams-May duo will fall out of the group with the No. 3 pick — last. Ohio State superstar WR Marvin Harrison Jr. should be the other part of that equation.
then what?
Well, in Dan Bruegler's mock draft last week, LSU WR Malik Nabbers was picked no. 4 (Arizona Cardinals), followed by Georgia's two-everything TE Brock Bowers at no. 5 at (Los Angeles Chargers) and Washington WR Rome Oduns at no. 6 (New York Giants). The next QB, LSU's Jayden Daniels, was the No. 1 in the after party. Joined (Atlanta Falcons) at 8.
No matter which way you slice it, this draft is the top Very much Offense-serious. Our consensus board followed Bruegler's lead, with Nabers and Odunze (up five spots each) ahead of Daniels (up six). This looks to be a good year for top-10 teams to add a dynamic playmaker.
Go deeper
Why did the Patriots pick Marvin Harrison Jr. (and not a QB) at no. It might be wise to build on 3
2. Dallas Turner is on a defensive island
On the flip side, we have Alabama edge Dallas Turner — the lone defender in the top 11 of the latest Big Board. Last time out, Turner had the company of his Crimson Tide teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry, who fell 10 spots to 18th, and UCLA edge Latu fell three spots to 12th.
A quick scan of the revamped board suggests that those teams that select teenagers could put together a run of defensive players. Iowa cornerback Cooper Dejean moved up seven spots to No. 15 and Alabama corner Derian Arnold moved up from 12th to 19th to round out that mid-round 1 range.
3. When do teams land on a second group of QBs?
Brugler started the second quarterback rush in the Big 19, sending Michigan's JJ McCarthy to the Los Angeles Rams as Matthew Stafford's draft and developmental successor. Oregon's Bo Nix, New England's No. 34, and Washington's Michael Benix Jr. to the Las Vegas Raiders, no. 44, had to wait till Round 2.
But the order is flipped on our consensus board: Bennix is the highest-ranked of those three quarterbacks at No. is at 24, followed by Knicks (28) and McCarthy (31). Pursuing QB placement at the end of Round 1 is usually very difficult because most teams that pick there make the playoffs and have a long-term answer under center.
Would the Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Pittsburgh Steelers, for example, consider jumping on a quarterback so soon? Would the Washington, Giants or Minnesota Vikings consider trading up from Round 2 to Round 1? Assuming Williams, Maye and Daniels are gone early, it will be interesting to see what happens once QB4 comes off the board.
Go deeper
The 15 Most Intriguing Early Entry Prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft
4. The starting O-line depth looks strong
Not only do Notre Dame OT Joe Alt (No. 4) and Penn State OT Olu Fashanu (No. 6) appear in the Big Board's top 10, but there are five offensive linemen in the top 20 and a dozen in the top 50. Player board.
Finding plug-and-play offensive linemen is always a challenge — even when teams make early Round 1 picks for those positions. However, the latest panel suggests there should be opportunities to make an impact on the second day of the draft (and beyond).
Biggest “Riser” after our Dec. 18 Consensus Group: LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.
Again, some are playing catch-up — Bruegler has Thomas no. Held 25, was re-released on 1 November. But even with that love Athletic, Thomas has not cracked the consensus top 50 until this edition. He jumped to 22nd in his debut, one spot behind Florida State's Keon Coleman.
Where Thomas lands in Brugler's latest mock: No. to Jacksonville. 17.
(Top photo by Brock Bowers: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
