New Hampshire exit poll: Majority of GOP primary voters not MAGA, but most would be satisfied with Trump nomination

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A polling booth inside a Plymouth Elementary School in New Hampshire on Tuesday, January 23, 2024.


Turned voters New Hampshire's GOP Presidential Election Tuesday was decidedly conservative and less closely tied to the Republican Party than last week's voters. Iowa CaucusesAccording to preliminary results CNN poll. But even a state does not naturally like to serve as a fortress Former President Donald TrumpGOP primary voters are largely prepared hug him than his remaining challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

According to early exit poll results, two-thirds of New Hampshire GOP primary voters described themselves as conservative, and about a quarter called themselves very conservative. Most said they did not consider themselves part of the MAGA movement, citing the “Make America Great Again” slogan popularized by Trump in 2016. Those numbers create a significantly different background than in Iowa's caucuses, where 9 in 10 people described themselves. Conservative, and almost half identify themselves as MAGA.

But still About 6 in 10 New Hampshire GOP primary voters said they were satisfied with seeing Trump as the final Republican nominee, and most said they thought he was fit to return to the presidency even if convicted of a felony.

Exit polls are a valuable tool for understanding the demographics and political views of primary voters. However, like all polls, polls are estimates, not accurate measurements of voters. This is especially true for the initial set of exit poll numbers, which have not yet been weighted to match the final primary results. But the results provide a glimpse into the types of voters who participate.

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Republican registered voters overwhelmingly supported Trump, with exit polls finding roughly three-quarters favored him. Voters registered as undeclared voters — the state's term for independent voters — favored Haley, by two-thirds.

There was a sharp educational divide among the state's GOP primary voters, echoing a divide often seen in the Republican Party. Two-thirds of voters without a college degree supported Trump..

Seven in 10 New Hampshire voters who support Trump say they are registered Republicans. Eight in 10 Trump voters disapprove of the legitimacy of President Joe Biden's election victory in 2020, highlighting widespread electoral disaffection among his supporters. There is no evidence of widespread electoral fraud in 2020. Haley's supporters present a near mirror image: 7 in 10 said they were registered as undeclared before Tuesday, and a majority agreed with the 2020 election results.

Most Trump voters in New Hampshire made up their minds early and cast their ballots with little hesitation: Three-quarters say they made up their minds about Trump a month in advance. A similar share said they voted for the candidate they “strongly preferred,” while only a few said they preferred Trump with reservations or that their votes were driven mostly by a dislike of his rivals. By contrast, Haley voters decided later — most in the past month — and often with some hesitation: 4 in 10 Haley voters in New Hampshire say they hate his opponents in favor of him, while 3 in 10 say they like him. With reservations, only a third of them were in favor of Halley.

When asked which of four personal qualities in a candidate were most important to them, 3 in 10 voters said they wanted to see a candidate who would fight for them, while a similar number of participants wanted someone who shared their values ​​and looked for a candidate with fewer. Anyone with the right character or could defeat Biden.

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Trump's voters said they highly valued his willingness to fight for them; In contrast, Haley's voters were more likely to cite temperament than any other trait.

Overall primary voters were overwhelmingly unhappy – 8 in 10 said they were dissatisfied with the state of the country. But Trump voters were three times more likely than Halley voters to describe themselves as angry about the way things are going in America. While only a small share of voters felt their family was significantly disadvantaged, that group broke heavily for Trump.

New Hampshire's Republican primary voters cited the economy or immigration as a top issue in the election, with fewer citing abortion or foreign policy as their top concern. But Trump and Haley voters differed widely in their attitudes across a spectrum of issues. Eight in 10 Trump voters said most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. should be deported, while two-thirds of Haley voters said undocumented immigrants should be given the chance to apply for legal status. About half of Trump voters said the U.S. should take a less active role in world affairs than it currently does, while only 3 in 10 Haley voters said the same.

While both candidates' supporters in the state largely said they opposed federal legislation banning abortions — another difference from Iowa, where a majority of caucuses supported such a ban — Haley's supporters in New Hampshire were more broadly opposed to the idea. edge

New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary poll was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Commission. It includes 2,029 interviews with Republican primary voters in 40 different polling places. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points; This is great for subgroups.

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This story and headline have been updated with additional information.

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