4 hours ago
New Zealand’s inflation expectations fell to a two-year low in the fourth quarter
New Zealand’s inflation forecast for the fourth quarter fell to a two-year low, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said. The survey showed.
The RBNZ’s two-year inflation expectations, seen as the period during which the central bank’s monetary policy action is translated into prices, fell to 2.76% from 2.83% in the previous quarter ended September.
The annual price increase was expected to be 3.60% from 4.17% a year ago.
The one-year-ahead expectation for annual wage inflation was 4.43%, down from 5.04% in the third quarter, while the two-year-ahead expectation for annual wage inflation was 3.53%, down from last quarter’s 3.66%.
The survey highlights that the central bank’s interest rate hike cycle has shown signs of easing price pressures. The RBNZ will hold its next policy meeting on November 29.
– Shreyashi Sanyal
7 hours ago
Japan business sentiment improves as Reuters Tanger survey rises in November
Confidence among major Japanese manufacturers rose in November, According to a Reuters Tanken surveyIt measures business sentiment among large Japanese companies.
It was the first time the index improved since August, while sentiment in the services sector rose for a second month.
The manufacturing sentiment index was +6 in November and +4 in October, while the service sector index was +27, up from +24 last month.
The survey underscores a poor economic recovery and a challenging outlook for Japan’s manufacturers.
This mirrors a similar improvement in the Bank of Japan’s closely watched quarterly Tangen survey.
A positive number means that optimistic respondents outnumber pessimists, and vice versa.
– Shreyashi Sanyal
7 hours ago
CNBC Pro: These are the stocks that will benefit — and lose — from the health trend, says Morgan Stanley.
From nutrition to beauty, a “transition to global health” is taking place — not just among consumers but also in governments, says Morgan Stanley.
The Covid-19 pandemic was a big factor behind the focus on weight and its implications for health, the investment bank noted, although health goes beyond weight loss and includes exercise, nutrition, appearance, sleep and memory.
CNBC Pro says Morgan Stanley looks at stocks — both positive and negative.
Subscribers can read more here.
– Weissen Don
15 hours ago
CNBC Pro: ‘The gift that keeps on giving’: Morgan Stanley loves the memory sector and picks its best stocks
The technology theme is at its peak this year and one segment in particular stands out for Morgan Stanley: the memory sector.
Calling it “the gift that keeps on giving,” the investment bank notes that the sector’s “pricing power is now the best in technology, and is still in the early stages of recovery.”
The bank reveals its “top picks” and “preferred plays”.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
– Amala Balakrishna
19 hours ago
HSBC says a soft landing could trigger a 15% rally in global stocks
According to HSBC, if central banks begin to ease monetary policy and the Federal Reserve manages a soft landing, global stocks will gain significantly in the new year.
“We expect global equity markets to be up and about 15% upside by the end of 2024,” Alastair Binder said in a note to clients. “But against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and declining interest rates, we think the market width will be increasingly narrow, with much of the market floating, and US dominance will continue.”
In recent instances where the Fed has engineered a soft landing, the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 22% between the pause in gains and six months after the bank’s tapering began, he noted.
For this setup, Binder favors the technology and consumer discretionary sectors, believing risks are better priced following the recent pullback in stocks.
– Samantha Subin
17 hours ago
The Fed’s Goolsbee says a ‘golden path’ is still possible
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austin Goolsbee said Tuesday that a soft landing is still on the table as the central bank tries to fight inflation without significantly hurting the economy.
“Because of some of the idiosyncrasies of the moment, there’s a possibility of a gold bull run … we’ve got inflation down without a recession,” Goolsbee said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Coolsbee said the drop in price pressures would equate to the fastest decline in inflation over the past century.
– Yun Li
12 hours ago
U.S. crude fell below $78 a barrel, its lowest level since July.
U.S. crude oil prices have fallen nearly 4% since July as weak economic data overshadowed concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could erupt into a wider regional conflict.
West Texas Intermediate fell $3.09, or 3.82%, to $77.73 a barrel, while Brent fell $3.19, or 3.75%, to $81.99 a barrel, both their lowest since July.
The drop came after China’s exports fell more than expected in October, indicating softening global demand.
— Spencer Kimball
11 hours ago
The market rally could be fleeting, says Wolff Research
Wolff Research strategist Rob Ginsberg noted that if the trading activity from earlier in the year is any indication, the rally could soon come to an end in early November.
“Each rally since the July peak has stopped before making a new 1-month high, before rolling to a new 1-month low…the definition of a bearish trend,” Ginsberg said.
Of course, he also noted that some momentum indicators were “positive for all indices (last week) and today we see that being confirmed at the stock level.”
– Fred Imbert