Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Friday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. March jobs report is imminent Tesla (D.S.L.A) is lowering the US prices of all its electric vehicles. But the US markets are closed today.
Major indexes were good during the holiday-shortened trading week, with midweek bullbacks healthy and normal. But many sectors and leading stocks, including Tesla shares, sold off sharply
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Statement of Works
The Labor Department releases the March jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 238,000, down from February’s 311,000 but still solid. The unemployment rate should be 3.6%. Hourly earnings rose 0.3% versus February, and the annual gain was 4.3%.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 1 came in at 228,000, up from 201,000 views. Claims for the previous week were revised up by 48,000 to 246,000 amid large seasonal adjustment revisions.
Job openings fell in February, but remain relatively high. Private payrolls growth slowed more than expected, coming in at 145,000 in March, ADP estimated.
Meanwhile, the March ISM manufacturing index signaled a deeper contraction, while ISM services index growth slowed sharply.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures fell 0.2%. fair value. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 3.31%.
Dow Jones futures and Treasury yields swing on March jobs report. But stock futures stop trading at 9:15 a.m. ET.
US stock markets are closed for Good Friday.
Hong Kong and European markets are closed for Good Friday and Easter Monday.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Stock market rally
Stock market bulls had a mixed week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% in weekly stock market trading. The S&P 500 index fell 0.1%. The Nasdaq fell 1.1% and the Russell 2000 fell 2.5%.
U.S. crude oil prices rose 6.65% to $80.92 a barrel, largely after Monday’s surprise OPEC+ production cut. Crude futures rose 20.9% in three weeks.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 22 basis points to 3.28%, a seven-month low.
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Among growth ETFs, the innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 3.5% on the week. iShares Expanded Technology-Software Sector ETF (IGVfell 1.6%. A Microsoft stake is a major IGV holding. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMHIt gave up to 4.1%.
Reflecting the more speculative story stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKKslipped 4.4% and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) both fell 1.2% despite Thursday’s gains. Tesla shares are the No. 1 holding across Arc Invest’s ETFs.
Tesla price cut
Tesla slashed the US prices of all its EVs overnight. It’s the third time this year that Model S and X prices have dropped by $5,000. Model S starts at $84,990, Model X now starts at $94,990.
Meanwhile, Tesla dropped the US Model 3 price by $1,000 to an entry price of $41,990. The Model Y has been reduced by $2,000 to $49,990.
Earlier in the week, Tesla dropped the prices of the Model 3 and Y once again in Australia.
Tesla cut global prices in January with US cuts on its S and X vehicles and additional European discounts in March. That, along with new US EV arrivals, pushed first-quarter Tesla deliveries to a new record. But they were less than factset scenarios. Production once again outstripped deliveries, with Model S and X output more than double sales.
Many analysts predicted Tesla price cuts, supporting demand and further reducing its valuable margins.
Investors won’t have a chance to react to the latest Tesla price cut until Monday. But Tesla shares fell 10.8% this week to 185.06 following the Q1 delivery report. Shares fell below the 200.76 cup-with-handle buy point and the 50-day moving average.
A base formed below the 200-day line, which is not significant. The 200.76 buy point is no longer valid, but TSLA stock is working on a new handle, already with a 207.89 entry on the weekly chart. Of course, the 200-day line is still above that.
Tesla earnings for the first quarter are due on April 19, when investors will see how the price cuts have hit profit margins so far.
Google rose 3.8% on Thursday to trade above normal at 108.42. Shares crossed a cup-with-handle buy point of 106.69, according to MarketSmith analysis.
Google’s CEO said the company will soon add chat AI to its search engine Microsoft (MSFT) added ChatGPT to its Bing search engine and other products.
Alibaba shares rose 4.25% to 102.74 on Thursday, breaking a bearish decline and giving an early entry. The new handle is above the 50-day line, but the base is lower.
BABA shares rose in the week before Alibaba said it would split into six different units with their own CEOs and the option to file for IPOs.
Stock market rally analysis
The stock market rally had a normal and healthy bounce in the major indices during the week.
The Nasdaq fell, but the Jupiter recovered the 12,000 level. The Dow Jones rose while the S&P 500 fell.
Google stock had a solid week and Meta platforms (Meta) was rising. Apple (APL) and Microsoft shares were little changed on the edge of buy areas. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Merck (MRK) and United Health (UNH) had large weekly gains.
But there were several major failures. Construction and industrials-related groups fell on Tuesday, while growth stocks sold off on Wednesday. Many suffered significant damage, while others may return to normal relatively quickly. Jupiter’s regeneration, often from key positions, is certainly encouraging.
Defensive growth and defensive names had a strong week, including medical, consumer staples and utilities.
Will those areas continue to outperform if the “risk-on” mentality returns?
Read the big picture every day to stay in tune with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Follow Ed Carson on Twitter @IBD_ECarson For stock market updates and more.
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