By Tuesday, two storms will combine to produce the heaviest snowfall

Weather maps are still on track to bring heavy snow to much of Minnesota over the next four days. If current weather forecast models hold up, Minnesota could get more than a foot of snow by Monday or Tuesday.

There are still more storm, track and temperature profile changes for Sunday's system. It is too early to estimate specific snowfall and locations during our second storm. But all signs point to a very wet and powerful storm that could drop a foot or more of snow in parts of Minnesota.

Let's break down both storms in our current forecast.

System no. 1: Thursday night to Friday morning

Our first snow system is still on the way to bring A view of remarkable and plowable snow For most of Minnesota. The system is making snow across the Dakotas and draining parts of Minnesota.

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The main snow wave pushes into western Minnesota by early evening. Snow will be heaviest in the Twin Cities area Thursday night between 9 and 10 p.m.

Forecast models call for heavy snow from 11 p.m. Thursday through 4 a.m. Friday. There is still a chance of light snow during the Friday morning rush hour.

Latest 18Z NOAA NAM 3 km model snow coverage and timing. The loop below runs from Thursday 7pm to Friday 7am.

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North American Mesoscale 3 km Model Thursday 7pm to Friday 7am

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

Snowfall through Friday morning will range from 2 to 5 inches from western Minnesota through the Twin Cities. If micro-bands of heavy snow set in overnight, local snowfall amounts of 6 inches are possible.

Here's another look at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest snowfall forecast for Minnesota, updated Thursday afternoon:

Snow forecast for Minnesota

Snow forecast for Minnesota


System No. 2: Sunday-Tuesday

A second storm on weather maps looks bigger, wetter and slower than Thursday night's Clipper.

It is interesting to see when the forecast model trends change slightly. Trends from Thursday's model runs favor heavy snow on Sunday.

Some models, such as NOAA's Global Forecast System, are starting to have a possible rain-snow line south of the Twin Cities on Sunday night before a possible change to rain on Monday.

If that trend pans out, heavy snowfall totals will be around the Twin Cities.

Here's NOAA's GFS model for 12Z Thursday, which arrived at noon. Did you notice the transition zone of rain around the Twin Cities on Monday, while the north and west will see mostly snow?

NOAA GFS model

Model Global Forecast System Sunday 7am to Tuesday 7pm

NOAA, via Tropical Titbits

If it clears, more than a foot of snow is possible by Tuesday in mostly snowy areas north and west of the Twin Cities.

It's still three to four days, so I won't show the convertible models now. But many are calling for more than a foot (and well) of snow toward the North Shore by Tuesday for much of western and central Minnesota.

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The more snow in the Twin Cities, the more snow we can get.

NOAA currently has a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 6 inches of snow in the 24 hours through 7 p.m. Sunday, extending from the Dakotas into Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

6 inches or more of snow is possible

Chance of 6 inches or more of snow in 24 hours by 7 PM Sunday


So enjoy our snowfall tonight. Most of us wake up to a white coating.

Then all eyes will be on a possible big wet storm starting Sunday.


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