Iran's attack on Israel on Saturday is bad not only for the Middle East, but also for Russia's war in Ukraine as new fault lines appear between Moscow and Tehran.
Michelle Kris, a senior policy researcher RAND, A US think tank describes in a commentary how a wider conflict in the Middle East could affect Russia. Comment was first published National interest magazine on April 11 – just days before Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel on April 13.
Chris's piece follows the April 1 strike on Iran's embassy in Damascus, Syria. Israel did not claim responsibility for the strike, but Iran claimed responsibility and vowed to retaliate.
“Moscow benefits from chaos in the Middle East — diverting Western attention and resources from Ukraine — and stands to lose if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates into a wider war,” Grisé wrote.
Russia has been establishing itself as a military and diplomatic player in the Middle East for years.
Moscow took advantage of the instability in Syria Libya To position itself as a regional security guarantor, but escalating the conflict in the Middle East, Kris wrote, would not have the same effect.
Grisé wrote that this was in part due to Moscow's involvement in the war in Ukraine. Russia's partnership with Iran has deepened over the past two years as Russia's heavily sanctioned economy has become increasingly isolated.
Iran is now an important military supplier to Russia. A Iranian “Ghost Fleet” Russia has been bringing oil around the world since the start of the war in Ukraine, keeping Moscow's oil revenues at bay.
However, if Iran becomes embroiled in a wider conflict, it may not be able to provide the same level of support to Russia.
“A wider regional conflict, especially if it involves direct conflict between Israel and Iran, would limit Iran's ability to continue serving as a military supplier to Russia,” Kris wrote.
And, “Tehran may request additional support when Russia is less capable of providing it,” he added.
The The Group of Seven or G7 countries It is already considering additional sanctions against Iran following its attack on Israel Game over to Russia.
European Commission President Ursula van der Leyen said in a statement on Sunday: “We will consider additional sanctions against Iran in close cooperation with our partners, particularly over its drone and missile programs.”
A broader Middle East conflict could increase China's influence in the region at Moscow's expense
Although Russia is at war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has positioned himself as a potential power broker in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war.
But Putin's plan could fall apart if the war spreads regionally, as Beijing is also keen to build peace.
“Russia will be particularly sensitive to Chinese attempts to encroach on its influence in the Middle East,” Kris wrote in his commentary.
This is especially so since Beijing was able to deliver results by March 2023 by creating a barrier between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Chris added.
With Russia's heavily sanctioned economy already dependent on China, if Moscow still hangs on to any shred of global influence, it will be even more exposed to Beijing's whims.
A Sunday Report, Russia's foreign ministry expressed “deep concern” over what it called “another dangerous escalation” in the region.
Calling for restraint, Russia's foreign ministry said it expects regional governments to “resolve existing problems through political and diplomatic means.”
